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nbme24/Block 3/Question#14

A cohort study is done to evaluate the association ...

0.05 < p < 1.0

I’m not sure about this one but the way I thought about it was that since the confidence interval included 1, it was not significant. And thus p value must be above `0.05`

tea-cats-biscuits  That makes sense! +
asapdoc  Had the same reasoning +1
jkan  I get that it's not significant, but why is it 0.05<p<1 and not p>1.0 +5
jkan  nvm, it's can't be greater than 1 because then it would have a negative% confidence interval which cannot happen (Think if p>0.05 means at least 95% within confidence interval) +6
charcot_bouchard  p=0.05 means theres 5% chance null hypothesis is true. p=1 means theres 100% chance null hypothesis is true. >1 means >100% chance which isnt possible. +4
wowo  p is a probability, so can't be greater than 1 +4

p-value refers to the probability of making a type I error (probability of having a false positive). When the 95% confidence interval does not include the null value (1 for ratio, 0 for difference), 0 < p < 0.05 (between 0% and 5% chance of having a false positive). However, when the 95% confidence interval includes the null value, 0.05 < p < 1.0 (between 5% and 100% chance of having a false positive).

Think of it as follows ---> If the 95% confidence interval includes the null value, then you have somewhere between 5% and 100% chance of being wrong if you conclude it is right. Conversely, if the 95% confidence interval does not include the null value, then you have between 0% and 5% chance of being wrong if you conclude that is is right